It is checked to the player on your right, who bets. You raise. The big blind calls two cold, and the bettor calls (8 big bets). The turn is the 3•. It is checked to you, and you bet. The big blind calls, but the flop bettor raises (12 big bets). What should you do? It appears that you are behind, but the pot lays 12-to-1. Your passive opponent would almost certainly not check-raise the turn with less than two pair. To decide whether you should call or fold, you need to count your outs. There are three obvious cards (the jacks) that might be outs. These are not your only potential outs, however.

Let us assume that your opponent plays so loosely that he might start with any two cards. His possible hands are king-nine, king-five, king-trey, or nine-five for two pair. (Nine-trey and five trey are unlikely because he bet the flop.) He could also have pocket kings, nines, or fives for a set. (Pocket treys are also unlikely because he bet the flop.) There are 2 kings, 3 nines, 3 fives, and 3 treys unaccounted for. Thus he can have king-nine, king-five, and king-trey six ways each, nine-five nine ways, a set of nines or fives three ways each, and a set of kings one way.

You have three outs to beat king-nine (3 jacks). Against king five, you have six outs (3 jacks and 3 nines). A nine counterfeits his two pair. If a nine comes, you will have kings and nines with a jack. Your opponent will have kings and nines with a five. You have nine outs to beat king-trey (3 jacks, 3 nines, and 3 fives). You have eight outs to beat nine-five (2 kings, 3 jacks, and 3 treys). Against a set you have zero outs.

To approximate your effective number of outs, you can calculate a weighted average of all your opponent's possible hands and your outs against each. Thus, you have approximately five outs. 49 A turn or river card counterfeits a strong hand if it "improves" it in a way that causes one or both hole cards no longer to play.

For example, if you have Kr4'W, and the board is K#7•4• (giving you two pair, kings and fours), the 7V on the turn counterfeits your hand. You now have "improved" to kings and sevens, but the 4r in your hand no longer plays. The relative strength of your hand is reduced, as any king with a kicker higher than a four now beats you (as does any seven).