| |
The examples
given so far all take place on the turn. When there are two cards
to come instead of just one, you will often have one or more backdoor
draws. A backdoor draw requires help on both the turn and river.
You have a backdoor flush draw, for instance, if you hold two
suited cards, and one of your suit appears on the flop. Fourth
and fifth street must both be of your suit to make a flush.
Backdoor draws come in only rarely, so by themselves they have
little value Backdoor draws are more important when they add value
to a hand that has other winning chances. For instance Ar4r has
more value if the flop is K•8V44 than if it is K•8•44-6. The 8T
gives you a backdoor flush draw, but you have other ways to win.
The next step is to quantify the extra value that the backdoor
draw adds.
As we calculated before, a backdoor flush draw is a 23-to-1 dog
to come in. A hand with one out has a 2/47 chance to improve by
the river, so it is a 22.5-to-1 dog. Therefore, a backdoor flush
draw is worth about one out. It is usually worth slightly more
because when you do not pick up your draw on fourth street, you
can fold (saving a bet). Also, if you do complete your flush,
your observant opponents will often not suspect it (as they would
if a third flush card came to a flopped two-flush), so you can
frequently collect extra river bets. A reasonable estimate for
the value a backdoor flush draw adds is 1.5 outs.
|
